Volume 21, Issue 2

VOLUME 21, ISSUE 2 EDITORIAL

Spring 2022

Are we witnessing the first TikTok war, with the invasion of Ukraine? The prevailing wisdom before 24 February 2022 was that Russia had a significant Information Warfare (IW) capability based on previous events, and that combined with cyber security attacks on the infrastructure in-theatre, across Europe and the United States, which would mean a very quick victory. To date that has not happened, and a fascinating aspect from this conflict has been the tremendous difference in the messages coming from Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. The former comedian turned politician is definitely winning the hearts and minds of the public, with his stalwart resistance and videos of him in combat gear, while the latter sits at the end of an extraordinarily long table, afraid to engage with anyone.

Defining Influence across Online Social Media Platforms

Abstract:

The ubiquitous nature of social media has seen it become a conduit for the propagation of misinformation to a global audience. The unfettered nature of social media has served to delegitimize the online environment. This has been compounded through the use of social media by malicious actors for the conduct of influence operations at scale. Therefore, there is a need for a greater understanding of social media platforms within the context of Information Warfare.

Published In

Volume 21, Issue 2

Written By

Thomas Maher

Benjamin Turnbull

Timothy Lynar

Keywords

Misinformation

Misinformation Propagation

Misinformation Diffusion

Social Media

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Do Hostile Information Operations Really Have the Intended Effects? A Literature Review

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to review the scientific basis for claiming any effect of foreign information operations. The literature on information operations is reviewed, as well as other kinds of persuasive communication (advertising, risk and health communication) that aims to change attitudes or behaviour. Most research indicates that persuasive communication in general has little effect on receiver attitudes and/or behaviour. Some hypothetical strategies that may increase the effect are formulated, such as hiding the sender’s intent, sending messages not too distant from the receiver’s present views, or using the emotional, rather than the rational, route.

Published In

Volume 21, Issue 2

Written By

Claes Wallenius

Keywords

Information Operations

Persuasion

Receiver Effects

Persuasion Resistance

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AI as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare: Challenges and Responses

Abstract:

“Artificial Intelligence is the new revolution, the one who leads in AI - will be the ruler of the world.” – Vladimir Putin The evolution of emerging technologies has entered a revolutionary phase. Artificial intelligence is the key factor behind this revolution. Managing complex network algorithms and machine learning are applications of AI. The use of these applications to run different affairs has provided a giant leap towards modernity and progress. However, along with its use for social progress, there is also a negative aspect attached to Artificial Intelligence (AI). While AI could enable several military innovations, it is not a military innovation itself. AI has a serious impact on future warfare, especially hybrid warfare.

Published In

Volume 21, Issue 2

Written By

Humais Sheikh

Keywords

Artificially Driven Hybrid Warfare

Informational Warfare Operations

Countering Hybrid Warfare

Multi Capability Development Campaign (MCDC)

Covid-19 Disinformation

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The Prohibition of Cyberterrorism as a Method of Warfare in International Law: The Need for a New IHL Treaty

Abstract:

There is no doubt that cyber operations can play a significant role in the conduct of warfare. This article focuses on a specific aspect of cyber operations that is growing in significance: cyberterrorism as a method of warfare. It begins by exploring the definitional issues surrounding cyberterrorism. It then examines the extent to which international humanitarian law (IHL), which was primarily designed to govern kinetic means and methods of warfare, applies to cyberterrorism, and concludes that there is a need for new treaty law to explicitly prohibit such acts and to hold the perpetrators responsible.

Published In

Volume 21, Issue 2

Written By

Brenda Mwale

Stuart Maslen

Keywords

International Humanitarian Law

International Criminal Law

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Extending the ‘Attribution Problem’: Why Who-Based Attribution Is Insufficient to Deterring Cyberattacks

Abstract:

Current scholarship explains the shortcomings of cyber deterrence through the difficulty involved in proving who launched an attack—what scholars refer to as the ‘attribution problem’. This paper identifies an additional intelligence-centric impediment to cyber deterrence. Cyberattacks yield effects in a manner that is indirect, while offensive cyber operations are multi-stage and multipurpose.

Published In

Volume 21, Issue 2

Written By

John Sakellariadis

Keywords

Attribution

Deterrence

Cyberattack

Offensive Cyber Operations

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Applying Fog Analysis Tool to AFSIM Multi-Domain CLASS Scenarios

Abstract:

Military leaders must consider uncertainty in decision making to accomplish mission objectives. Wargames and military simulations model real-world scenarios to understand potential outcomes for alternative courses of action to support decision making. This research applies the Fog Analysis Tool (FAT) (Tryhorn et al. 2021) to Cyber Land Air Sea Space (CLASS) scenarios for the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM).

Published In

Volume 21, Issue 2

Written By

Keywords

Fog of War

Wargaming

Multi-Domain Operations

AFSIM

Command and Control

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PSYOP, CYBER, and Internet Influence: Firing Digital Bullets

Abstract:

With the ubiquitous nature of the Internet, social media, and their continued exponential growth across society, it is necessary to comprehensively understand these platforms to engage threat networks at home and abroad. Undergirding all web-based actions, however, is human behaviour. Therefore, understanding human behaviour and the dynamic range of characteristics, actions, and attributes that are influenced by culture and context, for web-based offensive and defensive actions, is an ever-evolving niche skill. As such, non-kinetic activities and change efforts, especially in the cyber domain, require cross-cultural competence and experience in addition to any cyber capability.

Published In

Volume 21, Issue 2

Written By

Chaveso "Chevy" Cook

Keywords

Information Warfare

Cyber

Irregular Warfare

Psychological Operations

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False Information as a Threat to Modern Society: A Systematic Review of False Information, Its Impact on Society, and Current Remedies

Abstract:

False information and by extension misinformation, disinformation and fake news are an ever-growing concern to modern democratic societies, which value the freedom of information alongside the right of the individual to express his or her opinions freely. This paper focuses on misinformation, with the aim to provide a collation of current research on the topic and a discussion of future research directions