Intelligence Practice

A Systemic View of Surprise Attacks: Why It Matters

Abstract:

This paper examines the concept of a Surprise Attack from a systemic perspective. It looks at the approaches that can be assumed about the system when using intelligence methods to explore the environment of the system at hand. Assuming all system models are a creation of humans who often try to ascertain is that they are real, it is important that the implied complexity in terms of the system’s elements and the relationships between them are considered. The amount of reliability in the concepts that make up the system model as well as the desired outputs are also important. The boundary of the system showing the element in the system and those that are outside are also critical. A caveat is introduced to show that reality is chaos and probably no boundary around physical and conceptual system entities will truly capture everything that is relevant, so will ultimately fail in terms of surprises. The argument continues with the examination of the Known/Unknown elements within an intelligence problem, further confounding the elimination of surprise in the system. A final point adding to the production of the intelligence product is Cognitive Rigidity. Here, the use of imagination rather than just deduction of established facts and cognitive assumptions could better prepare an organization for a surprise attack.

Published In

Volume 22, Issue 4

Journal of Information Warfare

The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.

Keywords

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The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.

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