Uncertainty

Meta-Uncertainty and Its Implications for Military Communications

Abstract: 

Information sharing has always been crucial to military operations. This paper considers what explanatory content should be included to empower better decision making. The paper explores the concept of meta-uncertainty, this being produced in the absence of explanatory content. The paper uses two scenarios to explore the consequences of omitting the explanation. In the scenarios, Bayesian Networks are used to model inference under uncertainty. The scenarios indicate that meta-uncertainty can negatively affect decisions. A method of coping with meta-uncertainty is suggested, this being the probabilistic modelling of possible interpretations of the shared information.

Published In

Volume 19, Issue 4

Anticipatory Decision-Making Support Using a Bayesian Network

ABSTRACT

The changing Information Warfare environment requires that a decision-maker have effective processes to manage situations. This research paper presents an outline of anticipatory decision-making and indicates the usefulness of the Bayesian method for decision-making support. The Bayesian paradigm provides an elegant approach to pursue rational decisions in uncertain conditions. The main contribution of this constructive study has been to develop a network for time expanded anticipatory decision-making for actions of Information Warfare and Security generally.

Published In

Volume 5, Issue 1

Written By

Pertti Kuokkanen

Journal of Information Warfare

The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.

Keywords

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APT

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CIA
CIP
CPS

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The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.

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