Integrated Deterrence

How to Measure Strategic Influence: A New Science for National Security

Abstract:

The United States’ national security strategy is an influence strategy—the effectiveness of which cannot be measured. The strategy’s effectiveness is unmeasurable because influence operations still have not solved the assessment problem. The Department of Defense influence doctrine relies on unreliable practices from advertising and has never taken up a program of research to apply the very advanced psychological science of influence to the national security domain. Robust methods of operational design, variable control, and measurement are absent from national security influence, and there is no organization or mechanism to coordinate and deconflict operations across the whole of government.

Published In

Volume 23, Issue 3

Written By

Douglas Bryant

Illustrative Examples of How to Measure Influence Operations: Experimental and Statistical Methods for Causal Inference

Abstract:

National security influence professionals have always struggled with influence measures of effectiveness and operational assessments. This paper includes fictional examples that illustrate how experimental methods from psychological science can address this problem. Three fictional use cases are examined. A scientific approach to national security influence is essential to accumulating knowledge in this domain. Without it, the information operations community will continue to struggle to identify what works and why.

Published In

Volume 23, Issue 3

Written By

Douglas Bryant

Journal of Information Warfare

The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.

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The definitive publication for the best and latest research and analysis on information warfare, information operations, and cyber crime. Available in traditional hard copy or online.

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